PUBLIC GOOD PROVISION AND THE COMPARATIVE STATICS OF OPTIMAL NONLINEAR INCOME TAXATION*

Comparative static properties of the solution to an optimal nonlinear income tax problem are provided for a model in which the government both designs an income tax schedule for redistributive purposes and provides a public good optimally. There are two types of individuals, distinguished by their skill levels, who have the same quasilinear preferences for labor supply and the consumption of a private and a public good. Comparative statics are obtained for the weights in a weighted utilitarian social welfare function, the prices of the two goods, a taste parameter that measures the onerousness of working, and the skill levels.     

Settling the Smoke: Public Policy and Shareholder Wealth in the Cigarette Industry

This article uses daily data on stock returns of five U.S. publicly traded cigarette producers to document the wealth effects of antismoking policies initiated in the period 1964 to 1971. The authors find significant abnormal returns across 23 dates corresponding to important regulatory events. The second-stage estimation shows that wealth effects are also influenced by firm characteristics, such as market share, advertising intensity, percentage of sales of filter-tip cigarettes, percentage of advertising expenditures devoted to TV and radio, and tobacco leaf inventories. Overall, the article estimates that industry losses from antismoking policies amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. (JEL L66 , G14 , I18 )     

Predicting mispricing of initial public offerings

This article investigates the ability of neural network models to predict mispricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). The aim is to improve the modest explanatory power of existing models that are based on the theory of asymmetrically informed economic agents surrounding post‐issue market value of IPOs. This study develops and compares linear regression and neural network models. The results show that modelling variable interactions and non‐linearity allows a potentially fruitful approach for stagging in IPOs. Neural networks have been criticized for being a black box; however, this paper shows that, by using sensitivity analysis, neural networks can provide a reasonable explanation of their predictive behaviour and direction of association between variables. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games

This paper examines betting line changes from the opening to the closing of the point spread betting market on National Basketball Association games for evidence of informed trader betting. We show that within-betting period line changes significantly improve the accuracy of betting lines as forecasts of game outcomes. We examine individual line change magnitudes and show that these are directly and proportionately related to biases in opening lines. Further, line changes are of sufficient magnitude to remove these biases by the close of betting. We interpret these results as evidence that informed traders are influential in this market.     

New low-frequency spread measures

I develop new spread proxies that pick up on three attributes of the low-frequency (daily) data: (1) price clustering, (2) serial price covariance accounting for midpoint prices on no-trade days, and (3) the quoted spread that is available on no-trade days. I develop and empirically test two different approaches: an integrated model and combined models. I test both new and existing low-frequency spread measures relative to two high-frequency benchmarks (percent effective spread and percent quoted spread) on three performance dimensions: (1) higher individual firm correlation with the benchmarks, (2) higher portfolio correlation with the benchmarks, and (3) lower distance relative to the benchmarks. I find that on all three performance dimensions the new integrated model and the new combined model do significantly better than existing low-frequency spread proxies.     

Contingent Valuation Versus Choice Experiments: Estimating the Benefits of Environmentally Sensitive Areas in Scotland

This paper reports results from a study of the economic value of the conservation benefits of Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) in Scotland. The main novelty of the approach taken is in comparing two direct valuation methods, namely contingent valuation and choice experiments, to value these benefits. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is well-established as a technique for valuing the sorts of landscape and wildlife enhancements associated with ESAs. The CVM experiment reported here uses a dichotomous choice format, and includes a new correction for part-whole bias. Choice experiments are much less used as an environmental valuation technique. We note several advantages of such experiments over CVM, and then report characteristic values and ‘programme values’ estimated using the method. This application brings to light some problems in applying the choice experiment method. Finally, we discuss the issue of benefits transfer in the context of these two approaches to valuation.     

Book reviews

B.G.Dale & J.J.Plunkett (eds) Hemel Hempstead, Philip Allan,1989, 350 pp., £ 18.00

Theories and Technologies of the Knowledge SocietyNiels Ole Finnemann (ed) Centre for Cultural Research, University of Aarhus, Denmark, 1989, 100 pp., DK40

The Internationalisation of Software and Computer Services OECD Paris, OECD, 1989, 180pp., Ff120

Techno-diplomacy. US-Soviet Confrontations in Science and Technology Glenn E. Schweitzer New York and London, Plenum Press, 1989, xiv f 320 pp., $23.00

Strategic Management of Services in the Arab Gulf States: Company and Industry Cases M. Sami Kassem & Ghazi M. Habib Berlin, Walter de Gruyter, 1989, 480 pp.